Belgian general-government expenditure rose from about €224.1 billion in 2014 to €316.4 billion in 2023 — an increase of 41.2% in nominal euros.
That sounds like a very large rise. But nominal euros are only one part of the story. Over the same period, the economy-wide price level measured by the GDP deflator rose by about 25.4%, while nominal GDP rose by about 44.7%.
As a result, general-government expenditure ended this vintage at 54.3% of GDP in 2023, slightly below its 55.6% share in 2014. The main break in the series is 2020, when expenditure jumped to 58.8% of GDP during the COVID-era shock.
Nominal spending rose sharply. Prices also rose. The economy grew in nominal terms slightly faster than expenditure over this vintage. Those statements are all true at the same time.
The short answer
| Measure | 2014 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| General-government expenditure | €224.069bn | €316.386bn | +41.2% |
| GDP-deflator price level | 100.0 | 125.4 | +25.4% |
| Nominal GDP | €403.003bn | €583.132bn | +44.7% |
| Expenditure as % of GDP | 55.6% | 54.3% | −1.3 percentage points |
The important distinction is that the euro amount, the price level and the expenditure-to-GDP ratio answer different questions. None should silently substitute for another.
1. In nominal euros, government expenditure rose by about 41%
For this article, Cameralius defines total general-government expenditure as the sum of the National Bank of Belgium table lines for expenditure excluding interest charges and interest charges.
That gives €224.069 billion in 2014 and €316.386 billion in 2023. The resulting increase is approximately 41.2%.
There is no ambiguity about the direction of the nominal series: government expenditure measured in current euros was substantially higher at the end of the period than at the beginning.
But current euros are not constant purchasing-power units. A euro in 2023 does not represent the same general price environment as a euro in 2014.
2. The price level changed too
To keep that changing price environment visible, Cameralius uses the GDP deflator from the same NBB source vintage as a broad economy-wide price benchmark.
Chaining the annual GDP-deflator changes and setting 2014 equal to 100 produces an index of about 125.4 in 2023. In other words, this broad price benchmark rose by approximately 25.4% over the period.
The nominal spending index rises to about 141.2 by 2023, while the GDP-deflator benchmark reaches about 125.4.
That comparison tells us that the rise in nominal spending was larger than the rise in this broad price benchmark.
This is not an official “real government expenditure” series. The GDP deflator measures the price level of domestically produced final goods and services across the economy. It is used here only as a broad price benchmark. A purpose-built volume measure of government expenditure would require its own statistical methodology and source.
3. Relative to the size of the economy, the picture is different
Another way to view expenditure is to compare it with nominal GDP from the same source vintage.
Nominal Belgian GDP rose from €403.003 billion in 2014 to €583.132 billion in 2023, an increase of about 44.7%. That was slightly faster than the 41.2% rise in nominal government expenditure.
Consequently, expenditure fell from about 55.6% of GDP in 2014 to 54.3% in 2023 in this vintage.
This does not mean that government expenditure fell in euros. It means that nominal GDP increased slightly faster than nominal expenditure between the two endpoints.
The 2020 break matters
The decade should not be described as one smooth trend.
In 2020, general-government expenditure rose to about €270.7 billion while nominal GDP fell relative to 2019. The expenditure ratio therefore jumped from 51.9% of GDP in 2019 to 58.8% in 2020.
That is the largest discontinuity in the series. It coincides with the exceptional economic and fiscal conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
By 2021 the ratio had fallen to 54.8%, then to 53.2% in 2022, before rising to 54.3% in 2023.
Using 2020 as evidence of an ordinary structural trajectory would therefore be misleading. It is better treated as an exceptional shock year inside the longer series.
The year-by-year series
| Year | Expenditure (€bn) | Expenditure / GDP | Nominal spending index | GDP-deflator price index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 224.069 | 55.6% | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2015 | 223.851 | 53.7% | 99.9 | 101.3 |
| 2016 | 228.451 | 53.1% | 102.0 | 103.2 |
| 2017 | 231.561 | 52.0% | 103.3 | 105.1 |
| 2018 | 240.446 | 52.3% | 107.3 | 106.7 |
| 2019 | 248.477 | 51.9% | 110.9 | 108.6 |
| 2020 | 270.704 | 58.8% | 120.8 | 110.3 |
| 2021 | 278.575 | 54.8% | 124.3 | 113.8 |
| 2022 | 294.508 | 53.2% | 131.4 | 120.6 |
| 2023 | 316.386 | 54.3% | 141.2 | 125.4 |
Why lock the article to one historical vintage?
National-accounts data are revised. A newer official publication can contain different historical values for 2014, 2020 or 2023 than the values available in March 2024.
For a trend article, silently taking one year from one release, another year from a later release and a price series from a third release can create a synthetic history that never existed in any one official dataset.
Cameralius therefore keeps all three inputs in this article — expenditure, nominal GDP and GDP deflator — inside one coherent source vintage: NBB Report 2023 — Detailed statistical tables, published 13 March 2024.
The 2023 observations in the relevant expenditure table are marked as estimates in that release. Newer official revisions may now exist. They are deliberately not mixed into this historical series.
General government is not the federal budget
The expenditure series used here covers Belgian general government. That statistical perimeter is broader than the federal government alone.
It includes the public entities classified inside the general-government sector under national-accounts rules. A federal budget appropriation, a regional budget line or a social-security institution’s budget therefore cannot be substituted directly for this series.
For the institutional distinction, see What is the difference between Belgium’s federal budget and general-government finances? and What counts as Belgian government?.
What this does not mean
- A 41.2% nominal increase means government services increased by 41.2% in real terms.
- The GDP deflator is an official deflator for Belgian government expenditure.
- Government expenditure fell because its GDP share was lower in 2023 than in 2014.
- The expenditure-to-GDP ratio measures the absolute amount of spending.
- The 2020 spike represents a normal year or a smooth long-run trend.
- The series describes the Belgian federal budget alone.
- The March 2024 vintage is necessarily the latest official estimate available today.
- The 2023 value is final; it is marked as an estimate in the source.
The Cameralius rule
When asking whether government spending “went up”, establish which comparison is meant:
- Nominal euros: how many current euros were recorded?
- Price environment: how much did the general price level change?
- Relative economic size: what share of GDP did government expenditure represent?
- Institutional perimeter: general government, federal government, or another public body?
- Source vintage: which official release contains the historical series?
For this locked 2014–2023 series, the answer is:
Belgian general-government expenditure rose by about 41.2% in nominal euros. The GDP-deflator price benchmark rose by about 25.4%, while nominal GDP rose by about 44.7%. Expenditure therefore ended at 54.3% of GDP in 2023, slightly below its 55.6% share in 2014. The 2020 pandemic year is the major discontinuity.
Related Cameralius research
- What were Belgium’s biggest areas of government spending in 2024?
- What is the difference between Belgium’s federal budget and general-government finances?
- Why can Belgium have a large public sector and still run a budget deficit?
- What counts as Belgian government?
- Why two official Belgian government numbers can both be correct
Sources & evidence
- National Bank of Belgium — Report 2023, Detailed statistical tables, published 13 March 2024. This is the controlling vintage for the article.
- Table 20 — Revenue, expenditure and overall balance of general government: source for expenditure excluding interest charges and interest charges. Cameralius sums those two lines to derive total general-government expenditure. The 2023 observations are marked as estimates in the table.
- Table 7 — GDP and the main categories of expenditure, at current prices: source for nominal GDP used in the expenditure-to-GDP calculation.
- Table 5 — Deflators of GDP and the main categories of expenditure: source for the annual GDP-deflator changes used to construct the 2014=100 economy-wide price benchmark.
Reference period: 2014–2023.
Source vintage: NBB Report 2023, published 13 March 2024.
Evidence review: 9 September 2026.
Revision treatment: vintage locked; later revisions are not mixed into the historical series.
2023 status: estimate in the controlling expenditure table.
Cameralius derivations: total expenditure = expenditure excluding interest charges + interest charges; expenditure/GDP = derived total expenditure ÷ nominal GDP; nominal spending index = total expenditure relative to 2014; GDP-deflator price index = annual GDP-deflator changes chained from a 2014 base of 100.
Interpretive boundary: the GDP-deflator comparison is a broad price benchmark. Cameralius does not label the resulting comparison as an official real-government-expenditure series.
Editorial status
Country: Belgium
Publication type: Vintage-locked trend explainer
Topic: General-government expenditure
Institutional perimeter: General government
Reference period: 2014–2023
Evidence state: Official source observations plus explicitly labelled Cameralius derivations
Source vintage: NBB Report 2023, 13 March 2024
2023 status: Estimate in source
Last evidence review: 9 September 2026